Latam’s pivot to the “right” means the fiscal anchor is ‘muy fuerte’

Latin America’s recent shift toward the political right should reinforce fiscal consolidation and support regional bonds, although future electoral reversals remain a risk.

• Between 2022 and 2024, six of nine Latin American elections were won by right or center-right candidates, while all elections held during 2025–2026 so far have produced the same outcome.
• Brazil’s second-round election is scheduled for 25 October; the first round showed stronger-than-expected support for Flavio Bolsonaro, who campaigned on fiscal cuts, but the author takes no view on the result.
• Political swings are frequent: Colombia moved from right to left to right across its last three elections, while Argentina shifted from left to right, back to left and then right over its last four elections.
• Latin America’s average debt-to-GDP ratio, excluding Venezuela, is slightly above 60%, stable in recent years and below its COVID peak, reversing the deterioration seen during 2010–2020.
• Improved relations with the current US administration may reduce tariff and other macroeconomic risks, while corporate bonds in regulated utilities, metals and mining, and oil and gas could also benefit.

Takeaway: The author expects fiscal rhetoric and austerity efforts to keep Latin American bonds well anchored and debt ratios trending lower, but warns that another right-to-left political swing in future presidential cycles would require reassessment.