HSBC Funding the Future Survey - AI and the IPO window

HSBC's proprietary survey shows that private-market deal pricing has improved while fundraising remains constrained, with higher rates and AI reshaping capital deployment and exit plans.

• Survation surveyed 217 global investors representing USD3.6 trillion of assets, including approximately USD1.5 trillion managed by venture capital and private equity investors, between 15 September and 12 October 2026.
• Confidence in higher VC and PE activity over the next quarter rose to 48% from 44%, while the 12-month measure fell to 54% from 64%, with the decline concentrated in Asia Pacific.
• Up rounds were reported by 51% of investors and down rounds by 3%, the strongest and weakest readings in the survey's history, although HSBC says AI deals are a major driver of the improvement.
• Fundraising expectations weakened, with only 21% expecting conditions to improve over the next year versus 34% in July, while 23% reported higher dry powder. Three quarters of private investors expect a US rate hike, and the rate outlook became the leading headwind, cited by 87% versus 66% in July.
• AI was named by 85% as the sector attracting the most private-market investment, while 56% expect a meaningful slowdown in AI infrastructure spending within six to twelve months. Data-centre real estate and colocation providers were the most cited area of impact at 55%, up from 24% in July.
• Exit intentions reached 85%; trade sales remained preferred at 73%, while buyouts fell to 35% from 46%, IPOs rose to 35%, and mergers rose to 31% from 17%. AI accounted for 63% of expected listings, and US listing preference fell to 57% from 79%.

Takeaway: Investors remain committed to AI and expect stronger exit activity, while tighter financing conditions, higher rates and growing concern over infrastructure spending create valuation and capital-allocation risks.