How hyperscaler issuance is reshaping the Treasury curve

Hyperscalers are adding persistent duration supply that is likely to keep pressure on the long end of the US Treasury curve, although macro forces remain the dominant driver.

• Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle and SpaceX have issued more than $180bn of dollar bonds in 2026, with Street estimates reaching $250bn by year-end and roughly $400bn including wider technology and AI-related borrowing.
• AI capital expenditure is expected to exceed $750bn in 2026 and $1tr in 2027, while these companies now represent around 4.5% of the ICE BofA US Corporate Index.
• Hyperscalers placed 41% of their 2025–26 issuance beyond 15 years, versus 16% for the broad index; 31.2% was issued beyond 26 years, compared with 13.0% for the index.
• Amazon has issued dollar bonds out to 2076 and Alphabet has issued a £1bn bond maturing in 2126; Microsoft is the only major hyperscaler that has not yet financed its 2026–27 capex through the bond market.
• Thirty-year deals attracted coverage ratios of 4.5x for Oracle, 3.6x for Meta and 4.6x for Alphabet, versus a 2.98x year-to-date average for the broader US investment-grade market.

Takeaway: Hyperscaler issuance is a marginal negative technical for long-duration government bonds, but fiscal deficits above 6% of GDP, US debt above $40tr, reduced Japanese demand and higher term premia are the larger obstacles to a sustained long-end rally.