Growth Equity Update November 2026 - Edition 56

Quantum computing is becoming a funded AI-adjacent deep-tech sector, although commercial-scale fault-tolerant systems remain several years away.

• Nine US-quoted quantum companies now exist, including Finland's IQM and France's Pasqal, while European private rounds reached $2.3bn year to date in 2026 and $3.7bn across 2025 and the first nine months of 2026.
• Global quantum-computing revenue is estimated at about $1bn in 2026; McKinsey forecasts $4bn by 2028 and BCG forecasts about $170bn by 2040.
• The sector is moving from the error-prone NISQ stage toward expected quantum advantage in 2027-30, with commercial systems using about 100-1,000 qubits and 99.96% error correction targeted for 2030-35.
• Rothschild & Co divides the opportunity into processor specialists, major technology companies, software and applications, and component suppliers, using a classification applied to about $22.8bn of equity raised from January 2024 to October 2026.
• IBM targets a 200-qubit fault-tolerant Starling computer by 2029, while NVIDIA announced $2bn of European technology funding, Cohere raised CAD $7bn at a CAD $35.7bn valuation, and US raises above $100m reached $28.5bn in October 2026.

Takeaway: Investors can choose high-risk processor exposure or broader software and component plays, but the sector remains dependent on technical progress, competing qubit modalities, repeated funding rounds and a commercial breakthrough that the article expects mainly in the 2030s.