Germany, France and Italy: 3 calls for the eurozone Big 3

Germany, France and Italy face subdued 2027 growth as fiscal policy and political uncertainty shape their economic and market outlooks.

• Germany grew at its strongest pace since 2022 in 2026, supported by defence and infrastructure spending, while ING expects growth of around 1% in 2027.
• Germany's rebound depends on whether the government can implement structural reforms covering bureaucracy, taxes and affordable energy.
• France is expected to grow by 0.5% in 2027 after 0.3% in 2026, with weak confidence, higher financing costs and a softer labour market weighing on demand.
• France's deficit is projected at around 5.5% of GDP, above the government's 5% target, while political uncertainty ahead of the presidential election should keep the risk premium on French bonds elevated in the first half of 2027.
• Italy's growth is set to slow as the recovery plan expires, while inflation could remain above 5% in the first quarter and a mildly expansionary budget will cushion the economy before parliamentary elections.

Takeaway: Germany has the strongest growth prospect but needs reforms, France faces the clearest fiscal and bond-market risk, and Italy's near-term support comes from fiscal policy despite weaker investment and purchasing power.