German Exports Rebound amid Demand from the US, EU, and AI Buildout

Germany’s export recovery is likely to continue, supported by stronger US and EU demand, productivity-driven competitiveness gains, and the global AI infrastructure buildout.

• Goldman Sachs forecasts real German export growth of 3.5% in 2026 and 2.4% in 2027, after exports increased in the first half of 2026 and modestly supported GDP.
• Forward-looking export surveys have reached their highest levels since the European energy crisis began, while foreign manufacturing sales, real goods exports, and especially foreign orders have recovered since the start of 2026.
• Exports to the US are recovering from the decline caused by US tariffs last year; although second-quarter exports remained materially below pre-tariff levels, the shortfall peaked in the second half of 2025 and narrowed thereafter.
• EU trade has become a significant tailwind since early 2025, with manufacturing sales and orders rising after the energy-related slump, while AI-exposed goods have materially outperformed total German exports over the past year.
• Stronger productivity has modestly improved relative unit labor costs, but Chinese competition—particularly in third markets—will continue to constrain German exports; the first-half rise in chemicals and intermediate goods may also partly reverse after precautionary purchases linked to the Strait of Hormuz disruption.

Takeaway: The near-term outlook for German exports has improved materially and should support Europe’s largest economy, but investors should temper the outlook because Chinese competition remains a medium-term obstacle and some recent goods demand may be temporary.