Energy security: How AI and electrification are driving infrastructure investment

Energy security is shifting from cost-efficient access to fuels toward resilient power systems, creating a durable investment cycle in infrastructure, commodities and other real assets.

• Geopolitical shocks, including the loss of Russian gas supply to Europe and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, have exposed the costs of concentrated energy and shipping dependencies.
• AI, industrial reshoring and electrification are increasing demand for dependable electricity, driving investment in grids, storage, generation and energy infrastructure.
• Global energy investment has already exceeded USD 3 trillion annually according to the IEA, with natural gas, LNG infrastructure, nuclear power, storage and transmission networks identified as the main beneficiaries of new capital expenditure.
• AI data centers are exceptionally energy-intensive, while copper, lithium, graphite, nickel and rare earth supply chains remain highly concentrated, particularly because of China’s dominant role in critical-mineral processing.
• The US is relatively well positioned through domestic energy resources and expanding LNG exports, Europe remains more import-dependent despite increased investment, and Asia has the greatest exposure to imported energy but also the strongest future investment growth.

Takeaway: Robeco’s 50%-probability base case is that geopolitical fragmentation, climate disruptions and strategic competition keep inflation volatile; commodities and infrastructure should benefit most, while equities face mixed outcomes because resilience investment supports some companies but raises input, financing and supply-chain costs for others.