Drivers for the Week of September 7, 2026

US inflation and central-bank decisions will drive a volatile week, but tightening by other major central banks should limit the dollar’s upside.

• US headline CPI is expected to rise 0.4% month-on-month in August versus 0.1% in July and remain at 3.4% year-on-year, while core CPI is forecast to ease to 2.4% from 2.5%.
• A hot CPI print would strengthen expectations for a September 16 Federal Reserve hike and support the USD, while a cooler reading would revive the case for a hold; August PPI and inflation-expectations surveys will provide additional signals.
• The ECB is widely expected to raise its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% on Thursday, with Brent crude 8% higher and natural gas 44% higher than at the June meeting; the swaps curve prices rates at 3.00% within twelve months, which is EUR supportive.
• UK GDP is expected to be flat in July after growing 0.3% in June, and the article considers the 75 basis points of BOE hikes priced over twelve months to 4.50% too aggressive, leaving GBP exposed to a dovish repricing.
• Firm Japanese wage growth could make markets price some probability of a 50-basis-point BOJ hike, while Norway’s carry supports NOK and Sweden’s inflation below target argues against an imminent Riksbank hike.
• Chile, Poland, Peru and Türkiye are expected to hold rates at 4.50%, 3.75%, 4.25% and 37.00%, respectively, although inflation, real rates and commodity prices create different risks for their currencies.

Takeaway: Investors should prepare for sharp moves around US CPI and the ECB decision; the USD may strengthen if US inflation surprises higher, but broader global tightening limits its potential to reach new cyclical highs.