Booming or Uneven? Two Ways to Read Today’s Economy

The U.S. economy is simultaneously booming in aggregate and unevenly experienced across households, with AI investment and onshoring supporting growth while inflation threatens to raise financing costs.

• GDP is on pace to grow 2% in 2026, unemployment is 4%, and second-quarter corporate earnings rose roughly 30%, while consumer spending remains healthy and Visa’s CEO called conditions “strong and stable.”
• Consumer sentiment remains weak and volatile, falling after “Liberation Day” in April 2025 and again during the conflict with Iran; the article attributes part of this divergence to political polarization and the news cycle.
• Wealth distribution is a structural source of unease: the top 1% has increased its share of national assets, while the bottom 50% and the 50th–99th percentiles have lost ground.
• AI infrastructure spending is expected to exceed $750 billion this year across data centers, semiconductors, services, and energy, and economists estimate it represents 50% to 90% of current economic growth.
• Pandemic supply-chain lessons, tariffs, and tax incentives are encouraging onshoring; Summitry identifies holdings Thermo Fisher and Agilent as examples, while warning that inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target and could push rates higher.

Takeaway: Short-term investors may favor the AI infrastructure trade, but Summitry recommends a long-term approach that considers multiple scenarios because persistent inflation could eventually weaken the forces driving growth.