Apple earnings: where the options market puts the price of the report

Apple’s options curve suggests that most of the premium in the first expiry reflects the earnings report itself, while later expiries add only a smaller amount for ordinary trading risk.

• Apple reports after the US close on 2 November 2026, making 3 November the first session to price the result and 4 November the first expiry capturing the full reaction.
• Across the last eight reports, Apple shares moved about 2% on average the next day; six moves were declines, and the largest was a 7.4% fall in July 2026.
• With Apple at about USD 347.10 on 27 October, the 347.5-strike 4 November call and put cost about USD 7.23 and USD 7.75, producing a USD 14.98 straddle, or roughly 4.3% of the share price versus the company’s usual move.
• The same 347.5 straddle costs about USD 14.98 for 4 November, USD 15.85 for 6 November and USD 17.96 for 13 November, so the seven additional sessions add about USD 2.98.
• The double calendar sells the 4 November 340 put and 355 call and buys the corresponding 13 November options for a USD 2.85 debit, while the 4 November 347.5 long straddle costs about USD 14.98 and breaks even at USD 332.52 and USD 362.48.

Takeaway: The calendar is designed to benefit if the earnings move is smaller than the first expiry implies, whereas the straddle needs a move beyond roughly 4.3% to overcome its premium; both can lose their full debit, and the eight-report sample is too small to make the historical pattern predictive.