AI in credit markets as investment races ahead of corporate profits

AI investment is reshaping credit-market composition much faster than it is improving most companies’ profits or credit profiles.

• AI-linked issuers represented around 19% of the US investment grade non-financial index in June 2026, up from roughly 4% in 2022, according to Robeco’s issuer classification and forward scenario.
• Hyperscalers alone account for just over 5% of the US investment grade benchmark, with AI-related infrastructure and utilities raising the broader exposure further.
• Banks are using AI mainly for software development, know-your-customer processes and other efficiency gains; regulation, model-risk controls and competition for cost savings are likely to limit the immediate effect on credit quality.
• In consumer sectors, Booking and Expedia are integrating with AI platforms while hotels deploy AI tools for trip planning and customer service, but agents are more likely to redirect marketing and distribution spending than transform industry economics.
• Robeco’s analysts have not yet identified significant credit-profile differentiation between AI winners and losers, although stronger balance sheets may help larger companies invest and adapt over time.

Takeaway: Credit investors should look beyond AI narratives and focus on whether adoption is weakening or strengthening fundamentals, because its current effect on most credit profiles remains modest and any meaningful change should first appear in company earnings and balance sheets.