3 in 3: Capex, the Token Tax, and Trusting AI Agents

AI adoption can support a broader corporate investment cycle, while workforce economics and consumer trust will determine how far the trade can run.

• Capex estimates for 2027 have risen since the end of the second quarter, with technology and communication services leading the increase.
• Estimates moved higher in 10 of 11 sectors across both large-cap and small-cap companies, which the author views as a strong corporate confidence signal.
• Microsoft made 60,000 employees eligible for a voluntary exit program, representing more than one-quarter of its workforce.
• AI tools such as Copilot, Claude and coding assistants add computing costs to each employee, potentially encouraging companies to invest more in technology while hiring fewer incremental workers.
• A Grassroots survey of more than 500 weekly AI users found that nearly 60% use AI daily and almost 70% mainly use it for questions, research or content generation.
• Nearly three-quarters of respondents would either require approval for an AI agent to make purchases or cap those purchases at $100.

Takeaway: The next stage of the AI trade depends on agent adoption and consumer trust, so aggressive AI adoption estimates should be reassessed if confidence in autonomous purchasing fails to improve.