1,000 Days of Milei

Milei’s first 1,000 days have moved Argentina from recurring crisis toward credible macroeconomic stabilisation, although the durability and social legitimacy of the gains remain unproven.

• When Milei took office in December 2023, annual inflation was 211%, later peaking at almost 290%, while monthly inflation exceeded 25%, after years of deficit monetisation, peso depreciation and capital controls.
• Inflation has since fallen to around 33.5% year-on-year, helped by aggressive fiscal consolidation, the end of monetary financing, exchange-rate liberalisation, stronger exports, higher energy production and favourable base effects.
• The government cut subsidies and public spending and streamlined departments, prioritising fiscal balance through a shock-therapy approach that created significant short-term economic pain.
• Fitch and S&P upgraded Argentina to B- in 2026, while Moody’s also moved the country out of the highly distressed category; sovereign spreads are now around 100 basis points wider than the broader single-B universe.
• Greater policy stability is beginning to attract capital toward agriculture, mining and Vaca Muerta energy projects, although real incomes initially fell, poverty rose during the adjustment and the LIBRA controversy has raised governance concerns.

Takeaway: Argentina’s stabilisation has changed the market debate from whether recovery is possible to how far it can go, but investors should remain cautious because the country has repeatedly lost credibility after earlier false dawns.